After the epidemic, will the car market usher in "retaliatory consumption"?
The sudden epidemic has disrupted people's original rhythm of life and consumption normality. Some consumption plans have been stranded and consumption demand has been restrained. I don't know when the word "retaliatory consumption" began to spread among the people. Many people think that when the epidemic is lifted, the pent up consumption demand will be released abnormally, such as the food and drink, the increase of daily necessities, etc. And as a bulk consumer goods, will the car usher in a small upsurge of purchase? After the epidemic, what changes will happen to consumers' car purchase plans and trends? In addition, in the near future, the national and local governments gradually release favorable signals to stimulate automobile consumption, and what kind of impact will this have on the automobile industry
In view of the above problems, recently, gexi automobile launched a series of related surveys (8316 participants) through online and offline channels. The following will make a specific analysis based on the survey results.
After the epidemic, there may be a wave of car buying, but the "wave" will not be too big
According to the analysis of geyser Automobile Research Institute, affected by the epidemic situation, consumer demand is restrained, and the production and sales of passenger vehicle market in the first quarter of 2020 will decline significantly compared with the same period of last year, with a drop of about 35%. The decline will be narrowed in the second quarter, but it will still be affected by the excess temperature of the epidemic.
As for whether there will be a small upsurge of car purchase after the release of the epidemic alert, 46% of the participants confirmed this survey, and 34% of the participants thought that the situation would not be too optimistic at that time.
According to the analysis of geyser automobile, the reasons for the participants who agree to buy cars are as follows: 1. The car purchase plan that has been put on hold during the epidemic is released, and the long-awaited car can finally be started; 2. The boosting effect of consumption stimulus policy; 3. After the epidemic, it is found that the importance of owning a private car, and the car purchase plan is advanced; 4. The new car purchase plan after the epidemic The cars will be put on the market, attracting consumers to buy cars. The third reason mentioned above is one of the controversial topics in the near future. From the existing survey results, the majority agree that the epidemic prevention will promote the first purchase of private cars.
Among the reasons given by the participants who denied that there would be a car buying trend, they pointed to the point that "the overall economy will be affected, and consumer spending will be more cautious". The epidemic has a great impact on the operation of some industries in China, such as transportation, catering, film and television, which will directly affect the employment and income of relevant employees, and then affect the first car purchase. "The epidemic will increase consumers' awareness of cash reserves, so there will be no car buying trend soon after the cancellation, if so, it may be at the end of the year." A person in the industry said it. In addition, some participants believed that compared with SARS in 2003, Chinese consumers' cognition and consciousness of car purchase tended to be rational and mature, and would not rush for a while.
It is also worth noting that in the survey of consumers with real demand for cars, nearly 40% of the original planned car buyers are worried about the impact of the epidemic on their work or income fluctuations, and may cancel the car purchase this year. In addition, nearly 10% of participants said that the purchase plan would not change, but the purchase cost would be reduced. To some extent, this shows that consumers' confidence in buying cars has been reduced. Even if there is a trend of buying cars, the waves should not be very big.
The stimulus policy has a great impact on the car market, and consumers are more concerned about the purchase tax
A novel coronavirus General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech entitled "addressing the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic" at the Standing Committee meeting of the Standing Committee of the Central Political Bureau recently pointed out that we should actively stabilize traditional bulk consumption such as cars, encourage the purchase of vehicles in the restricted area to increase the number of vehicle license plates, and drive the consumption of automobiles and related products.
Subsequently, the Ministry of Commerce announced that it would thoroughly implement the important decision-making and deployment of the central government on "actively stabilizing traditional mass consumption such as automobiles" and the spirit of the opinions of the general office of the State Council on accelerating the development of circulation and promoting commercial consumption, and study and issue policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption together with relevant departments. At the same time, the Ministry of commerce also encourages all regions to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, increase the purchase restriction index of traditional vehicles and carry out measures such as replacing old vehicles with new ones according to local conditions, so as to promote automobile consumption. The release of favorable policy information will undoubtedly bring a spring breeze to the car market with many difficulties under the epidemic situation.
In this survey, nearly 14% of participants said that they would advance their car purchase plan this year because of the preferential policies. In addition, nearly 50% of participants said that the specific purchase time would be adjusted according to the policy. From this point of view, favorable policies play an important role in automobile consumption and overall industry performance in 2020. Among the many policies put forward by the government at present, "cancel or reduce the purchase tax" is considered by many participants to have the greatest impact on the car market, while "cancel or relax the purchase restriction" and "give car purchase subsidies" are also regarded as good.
Willing to buy cars online, few models with clean air filter function are favored
For Autobots, the solution is always more difficult. In order to minimize the loss and boost the sales volume, during the epidemic period, all big car enterprises and dealers quickly transferred to online car sales. For a while, VR car watching, online Red live broadcast, car delivery, door-to-door and other kinds of marketing were presented at each network end. However, due to the fact that cars are bulk consumer goods and involve insurance, licensing and other procedures, at present, online car buying is more or less high and low, and most consumers still tend to buy cars offline. Only a few of them know about the relevant models and have a high degree of intention, so they will choose to buy online.
It is also worth mentioning that the epidemic has also opened up new development opportunities for automobile enterprises, the most obvious of which is the release of the concept of "healthy automobile". Among them, Geely announced earlier that it would invest 370 million yuan to start the research and development of "all-round healthy car" with virus prevention function. At present, the company has successfully trial produced the industry's first "cn95 high efficiency composite air conditioning filter element of vehicle specification level", and achieved mass production. GAC new energy also launched the research and development of anti-virus air filtration technology, and recently announced that it has realized the successful development of "AIAN filtration and anti-virus integrated" anti-virus health cockpit
In the survey, more than 60% of the planned car buyers said they would choose the car with the function of purifying air filter. With the upgrading of consumption and the experience of the epidemic, consumers will pay more attention to the air quality in the car in the future.
When the situation is not optimistic, it can better reflect the market's recognition of the brand. According to this survey, Japanese cars are continuously favored by consumers due to their quality reliability and relatively high fuel economy. After positive investment and effective marketing in recent years, the recognition of independent brands in the hearts of consumers is gradually increasing. However, the sales volume of American Series cars dropped significantly in 2019 due to multiple factors. Although the three auto groups have made positive adjustments, it is not clear whether the situation will significantly recover. To be sure, Tesla, the new rising star of the US Department, will gain a lot in 2020 due to the implementation of the localization project in China.
Waiting for spring to bloom
Although spring has already begun, it still feels chilly. However, I believe that the cold is about to pass, and the epidemic situation is fading. Everything is waiting for dormancy. When the spring sun shines on the earth, when the recovery period comes, everything will blossom. After two years of decline, the car market, after a period of heavy adjustment, will be more aggressive.
According to the prediction of geyser Automobile Research Institute, although the Chinese automobile market will still show a downward trend throughout the year affected by the epidemic, from the second half of the year, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles will increase year on year, especially after the "golden nine silver ten", it is expected that the monthly sales will even exceed the same period of 2018. Here, wait for the good news, and attach a sentence, come on!
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