Did not expect that 2020 car market will start with a war "epidemic" action.

The novel coronavirus, the 2019 2019-nCoV, will have different effects on all walks of life. Among them, it can be predicted that wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, logistics and transportation, cultural tourism and other industries will be greatly affected by the epidemic. As far as the automobile industry we are in, to what extent will it be affected?

In response to this problem, gexi automobile recently launched a relevant investigation (industry survey: the sudden outbreak, how will it affect the vehicle market in 2020?) , the specific findings will be analyzed below.

Overall impact of the epidemic on the industry

The 2019-ncov outbreak is easily associated with SARS (SARS) 17 years ago. Because of this, before talking about the overall impact of the epidemic on the car market, let's look at the car market in 2003.

According to the data released by the Federation, the annual sales volume of vehicles in 2003 was 2.1954 million, an increase of 70% compared with 2002; the SARS epidemic occurred in the second quarter of 2003, and the sales volume of vehicles in the second quarter was 526100, accounting for 24% of the whole year, basically at the average level. This shows that 17 years ago, the car market did not decline in sales due to the emergence of SARS, but grew faster. However, the background at that time is different from that at present. From 2002 to 2003, private cars began to be popularized in China. Cars are in an incremental period, the sales base is small, and high growth is reasonable.

17 years on, China's auto market has changed dramatically. Statistics show that by the end of 2019, China's car ownership is 260 million; the annual sales scale has exceeded 25 million, 10 times of 2003. The automobile industry in the stock age has been experiencing negative growth for two years. At this time, the existence of "epidemic" factors is bound to have an impact on the automobile market. As for the impact, there are different opinions based on the voices of all parties and the online survey results.

From the above results, more than one third of the participants think that the epidemic has a great impact on the car market, and the annual sales decline will exceed the original industry forecast. "The epidemic will affect the normal operation of the economy for at least two months. If it affects the economy, it will affect consumption." "The car market in 2020 is not optimistic," a person from the chamber of Commerce of auto dealers of the all China Federation of industry and Commerce told geyser auto

However, many participants believe that the epidemic will affect the car market in the short term, but not in the whole year. In addition, some investigators believe that the demand for private cars may increase in the short term due to the epidemic.

Specific impact analysis: production end, consumption end and circulation end

Overall, the overall impact of the epidemic on the car market is mainly reflected in the production end, consumer end, circulation end and other fields. For example, for consumers, the purchase plan may be delayed; due to the delay in the start-up time, the production capacity of vehicle enterprises and parts enterprises may be damaged; in addition, because of the epidemic prevention and control, the logistics and transportation in most regions are affected, and the production progress of the main engine plant may be delayed.

Production side: production scheduling is affected by the resumption time

On January 27, the general office of the State Council issued a notice on extending the Spring Festival holiday in 2020. Then, the notice of the extension of Spring Festival holiday of various units in different regions was issued in succession. We have investigated the anti work time of enterprises after the Spring Festival. More than half of the enterprises extend the construction period according to the holiday notice stipulated by the state, and nearly 17% of the enterprises postpone the legal holiday. Roughly 70% of businesses have been delayed due to the impact of the epidemic.

One of the most direct consequences of the postponement of resumption of work is that the production capacity is blocked. The automobile production and sales volume in January will be directly affected. If the epidemic continues, the production and sales volume in February will also be worrying. In response, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Chinese Federation of passengers, also publicly expressed his views.

It is not only the main engine plant that delays the resumption of work, as a chain industry, but also the upstream supporting businesses' resumption time is delayed. "Due to the holiday extension, production and production scheduling will be affected in the supply chain," a person from boma technology told the company

There is no doubt about the influence of parts delivery on the production of the main engine factory. The supporting suppliers also spoke on the network message board: "as suppliers, only the car companies are required not to rush the suppliers to deliver goods as soon as they go to work. Customs does not go to work, materials can not be cleared, workers can not rush back to the factory, which are all objective reasons for non delivery. "

The problem of production scheduling in automobile production is obvious. However, it is more difficult for Hubei Province, which has a serious epidemic. As Cui Dongshu said: "this epidemic will inevitably have an impact on automobile production in Hubei Province. The core feature of automobile production is the long industrial chain, and the connection of supply chain is extremely important. Hubei's auto parts system should not resume production on time, at least for a week, or even longer. " According to the data, in 2019, the automobile production in Hubei Province reached 2247500 sets, accounting for 8.8% of the whole country. The slow development of automobile industry in Hubei Province will directly affect the trend of automobile market in China.

Consumer end: consumer or delayed car purchase demand

Zhu Yulong, an auto industry expert, when discussing the impact of the epidemic on the auto market, pointed out that there are two important factors in the auto stock market. Will consumers' purchasing power be weakened? Whether the purchase plan of consumers will be delayed. For the second point, from the above survey results, nearly one third of people will postpone their car purchase plan.

At present, migrant workers and small vendors are the main population of automobile consumption. Many migrant workers can't go to work immediately because of the epidemic situation, which affects their income. Small vendors reduce their income due to the decline of the real economy. The purchasing power of such consumers is impacted and worth worrying.

In addition, for optimists that the outbreak will stimulate private car consumption, there are many voices on the Internet. However, most of the people who have the purchasing power of automobiles are in cities with limited purchasing power, while the other part of the people who have the demand for automobiles is precisely the migrant workers and traders mentioned above. Therefore, it seems that the crisis is organic, but in fact, it is also affected by the epidemic.

Circulation end: the passenger flow of 4S stores with real economy damaged or reduced

Wanda recently announced that from January 25 to February 29, it will exempt all merchants from rent and property fees. It is preliminarily estimated that the amount will be as high as 3 billion yuan. What's behind Wanda rent free is the serious decline of the real economy. Some financial experts predict that affected by the epidemic, the real business will decline by more than 80% in the next few months.

After experiencing the high inventory in 2019, where will 4S stores, which also belong to the real economy, go in front of the epidemic?

According to the information collected by geyser, several dealer groups, including Guanghui automobile, Yongda Automobile Group, Hengxin automobile group, and baideli group, have issued suspension announcements due to the prevention and control of the epidemic.

For dealers, the immediate impact of the suspension of business and the reduction of customer flow is that the inventory index in January is worrying. Not only that, car sales are not good, cash flow will be affected, and the pressure of bank loans will increase.

In addition, the generalized circulation end also includes logistics transportation. Although most of the parts and components suppliers do well in localization, the production capacity will be affected when the epidemic logistics is under control.

Lifting measures

As mentioned above, how to make up for the loss caused by the delay of start-up and the failure of order delivery? How to deal with the lack of vitality of the automobile market after the weakening of the consumption ability of consumers? How to solve the problem of high inventory, bank loan, cash flow shortage and so on?

Referring to the past experience and the current new business forms of automobile consumption, in terms of boosting measures, we can mainly focus on: reducing manufacturing tax and other supporting policies for manufacturing enterprises, introducing relevant stimulus policies at the consumer end, making up for the decrease of 4S store's customer source with the new retail business model, encouraging online car purchase, etc.

In addition, people in the automobile circulation department are also appealing: can banks reduce certain loan interest of automobile dealers. There are also voices in the financial field that the central bank should moderately relax monetary policy, provide tax incentives, etc., so as to help enterprises in the automotive industry chain that are facing difficulties due to the epidemic.

In fact, there are some ways to boost the industry. For example, with regard to the weakening of consumption power, the Insurance Regulatory Commission of the Bank of China issued a notice on January 26th, the original text of which is as follows: for the people who temporarily lose their income sources due to the impact of the epidemic, credit policies should be appropriately inclined, individual credit repayment arrangements such as housing mortgage and credit card should be flexibly adjusted, and the repayment period should be reasonably postponed.

Fortunately, the epidemic will not last for a long time, and the difficulties are only temporary. Of course, if the above measures can be carried out effectively, it will play a great help to reduce the loss of the automobile industry chain.

Growth forecast of vehicle market in 2020

Prior to that, Gaisi had made a prediction that the overall sales volume of passenger vehicles would decline by 3% in 2020.

From the survey results, although most people think that the impact of the epidemic on the car market is a quarter (1-3 months), for the performance of the car market in 2020, nearly half of the people think that the decline in the car market in 2020 will be narrowed, while a small number of people point out that the decline can be the same as that in 2019.

This result shows that everyone has confidence in the recovery of the car market.

The recovery of the car market is in the last two months of 2019. Relevant data show that the output in November and December 2019 increased by 1% and 3% respectively year on year.

With this trend forecast, the automobile production and sales volume in January 2020 should also have a certain recovery, but January itself has the Spring Festival holiday, coupled with the delayed commencement due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the performance in January 2020 and even February 2020 is not optimistic.

According to the current situation and impact of the epidemic, the research institute predicted that the sales volume of passenger vehicles would decline by more than 17% in January, 10-15% in February, and 3-6% in 2020 if the epidemic affected the vehicle market for 1-4 months. However, if the outbreak continues to affect the six-month car market from time to time, the forecast for the whole year 2020 will be even less optimistic, with a decline rate of 8-10%, the Gai added.

Conclusion:

The negative impact of the epidemic on the car market is a fact. But everything has two sides, just like the coin has both sides, and the epidemic is a double-edged sword. After the epidemic, another round of competition of comprehensive strength between automobile enterprises began, and the industry shuffling process will also be promoted. In short, the more uncertain and difficult factors the automobile industry is facing, the faster the industry shuffles. As Yin Tongyue, chairman of Chery Automobile, once said: if it snows in winter, the wheat will grow better next year.

As for the impact of the epidemic on the car market? Different people have different opinions. But objectively speaking, the impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry depends on the duration of the epidemic. The longer it lasts, the greater the impact.